TO: INTERESTED PARTIES
FROM: ROBERT BLIZZARD
DATE: SEPTEMBER 2, 2016
RE: NY CD‐22 POLL RESULTS


On behalf of Claudia Tenney for Congress and the NRCC, Public Opinion Strategies conducted a survey of 400 registered voters (margin of error + 4.9%) in the 22nd Congressional District of New York from August 23‐25, 2016. Fully 30% of the interviews completed were done via cell phone.

KEY FINDINGS

  • Claudia Tenney leads the field in the race for Congress.
    As we head toward the Fall campaign, Claudia Tenney leads her two opponents Kim Myers and Martin Babinec by a healthy margin:
Candidate Ballot Support
Claudia Tenney (R/C) 33%
Kim Myers (D/WF) 27%
Martin Babinec (UP/Ref) 23%
  • This is a solid Republican district, and Hillary Clinton will be a drag on the ticket in November.
    In New York’s 22nd District, party registration favors Republicans, the Republican candidate for Congress has a 9‐point lead on the generic ballot (42%‐33%), and President Obama’s approval rating sits at just 42% approve‐53% disapprove.Hillary Clinton is viewed unfavorably by 61% of voters, and on the ballot, Donald Trump leads Clinton by a 43%‐34% margin, making it tougher for Myers to grow and gain traction in this district.
  • Tenney begins the Fall campaign with a positive image.
    Tenney enjoys a 34% favorable‐19% unfavorable image with voters in the district, including an impressive 47%‐16% mark with Republican voters. Growing her name ID and building upon her favorable image rating will be imperative over the next two months.

BOTTOM LINE

These poll results clearly demonstrate that Claudia Tenney has the momentum in this race for Congress and is well‐positioned as the Fall campaign begins in earnest. Martin Babinec has already spent a small fortune and remains in third place, and Kim Myers will have difficulty outrunning Hillary Clinton in this district where the political landscape is decidedly tilted toward the GOP.

If the Tenney campaign has the necessary funds to grow her image across the district and push‐back on the negative attacks from her opponents and outside groups, she will be well on her way to retaining this seat for Republicans come November.

PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES Page 1
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